#巨鲸行为分析 When the policy is finally implemented, the true reaction of the market will become evident.

The Federal Reserve today implemented a 25 basis point rate cut as expected, adjusting the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%, while announcing the end of the balance sheet reduction plan in December. On the surface, this appears to be an accommodative policy, but there are clear divisions within the Fed—two members voted against the decision, one believed the rate cut was insufficient, and another firmly opposed the rate cut. This reflects the decision-making body's confusion and cautious attitude towards the economic outlook.

Why did the market show a downward trend in the face of this theoretically favorable policy? There are three main reasons:

First of all, the market has long since priced in the expectation of a rate cut. The 25 basis points cut was widely predicted and reflected in the prices before the announcement, in line with the market rule of "buy the rumor, sell the news," prompting some investors to choose to take profits.

Secondly, the serious divisions within the Federal Reserve are sending dangerous signals. The inconsistencies among decision-makers may suggest that the actual economic situation is more complex and fragile than what the official data shows, leading to a rapid spread of risk-averse sentiment.

Third, the issue of inflation remains a constraint on policies. The policy statement repeatedly mentions that "inflation is still high," indicating that the future space for interest rate cuts may be limited, breaking the market's expectations for continued easing policies.

The impact on the cryptocurrency market is worth paying attention to: In the short term, improved liquidity may provide some support for coin prices, but the uncertainty of economic downturns will continue to suppress the performance of risk assets. $BTC and mainstream digital assets are likely to enter a phase of increased volatility, while small-cap coins lacking solid fundamental support face greater selling pressure and correction risks.

Investment advice:

Be cautious at high positions and avoid blindly entering the market after positive news is released, as this often signals a short-term top.
Maintain sufficient liquidity and patiently wait for buying opportunities created by market panic sell-offs at low prices, then gradually allocate quality assets.
Pay close attention to the subsequent remarks of Federal Reserve officials and changes in key economic indicators. Once there is a shift in policy tone, adjustments to the investment portfolio should be made promptly.

The market environment is constantly evolving, but the fundamental principles remain unchanged—accurately grasping the changes in interest rate cycles and identifying market turning points requires analyzing market fluctuations from a macro perspective and mastering the core investment logic to respond to different market conditions.